Italy’s Department for Civil Protection issued its most severe weather warning for parts of Sicily and Calabria as the south was battered by heavy storms and floods on Sunday and into Monday.
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2楼2021-10-26 23:22
2楼2021-10-26 23:22收起回复
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1. A non tropical low pressure system, located south of Sicily, is producing intermittent areas of shower and thunderstorm activity near the center of the system. This system is set to meander over the Central Mediterranean over the next couple of days, where it is set to continue northwest closer to the coast of Sicily and adjoining Southern Italy. There is potential for this system to acquire subtropical characteristics as it meanders in this region. Regardless, these areas are set to receive gusty conditions and possible flash flooding as the system passes.
Chance of (sub)tropical formation within 48 hours...HIGH...70%
Chance of (sub)tropical formation within 5 days...HIGH...70%
Chance of (sub)tropical formation within 48 hours...HIGH...70%
Chance of (sub)tropical formation within 5 days...HIGH...70%
On Monday the Il Meteo weather news site reported that the cyclone battering the south had increased in intensity and been upgraded to a Mediterranean hurricane, with the potential to reach windspeeds of up to 120 km/h.
PERSISTONO:
- PRECIPITAZIONI INTENSE E ABBONDANTI A PREVALENTE CARATTERE DI
ROVESCIO O TEMPORALE, PER LE PROSSIME 12 ORE SULLA CALABRIA
MERIDIONALE E PER LE PROSSIME 24/30 ORE SULLA SICILIA, CON
PARTICOLARE RIFERIMENTO AL SETTORE CENTRORIENTALE DELL'ISOLA, CON
QUANTITATIVI DI PRECIPITAZIONE CHE POTRANNO ASSUMERE CARATTERE DI
ECCEZIONALITA'';
- VENTI FORTI DAI QUADRANTI ORIENTALI, CON RAFFICHE FINO A BURRASCA,
PER LE PROSSIME 12 ORE SULLA CALABRIA CENTROMERIDIONALE, CON
MAREGGIATE LUNGO LE COSTE ESPOSTE;
- STATO DEL MARE FINO A MOLTO AGITATO, PER LE PROSSIME 24 ORE SULLO
IONIO.
SI PREVEDE INOLTRE PER LE PROSSIME 24/36 ORE VENTO FORTE DAI
QUADRANTI ORIENTALI, CON RAFFICHE FINO A BURRASCA O BURRASCA FORTE
SULLA SICILIA ORIENTALE, IN INTENSIFICAZIONE FINO A TEMPESTA DAL
POMERIGGIO DI DOMANI MERCOLEDI'' 27 OTTOBRE 2021, CON MAREGGIATE
ANCHE FORTI LUNGO LE COSTE ESPOSTE.
- PRECIPITAZIONI INTENSE E ABBONDANTI A PREVALENTE CARATTERE DI
ROVESCIO O TEMPORALE, PER LE PROSSIME 12 ORE SULLA CALABRIA
MERIDIONALE E PER LE PROSSIME 24/30 ORE SULLA SICILIA, CON
PARTICOLARE RIFERIMENTO AL SETTORE CENTRORIENTALE DELL'ISOLA, CON
QUANTITATIVI DI PRECIPITAZIONE CHE POTRANNO ASSUMERE CARATTERE DI
ECCEZIONALITA'';
- VENTI FORTI DAI QUADRANTI ORIENTALI, CON RAFFICHE FINO A BURRASCA,
PER LE PROSSIME 12 ORE SULLA CALABRIA CENTROMERIDIONALE, CON
MAREGGIATE LUNGO LE COSTE ESPOSTE;
- STATO DEL MARE FINO A MOLTO AGITATO, PER LE PROSSIME 24 ORE SULLO
IONIO.
SI PREVEDE INOLTRE PER LE PROSSIME 24/36 ORE VENTO FORTE DAI
QUADRANTI ORIENTALI, CON RAFFICHE FINO A BURRASCA O BURRASCA FORTE
SULLA SICILIA ORIENTALE, IN INTENSIFICAZIONE FINO A TEMPESTA DAL
POMERIGGIO DI DOMANI MERCOLEDI'' 27 OTTOBRE 2021, CON MAREGGIATE
ANCHE FORTI LUNGO LE COSTE ESPOSTE.
27 Oct 2021 | 0000 UTC | 02M/GLORIA - ADVISORY 2
...GLORIA CONTINUES WITH LITTLE CHANGE...
Current location: 34.4°N, 17.9°E
Maximum sustained winds: 30 kt/35 mph
Minimum central pressure: 1005 mbar
Moving: E 4kt...5 MPH...10 kph
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Since the last forecast, Gloria has continued to drift slowly to the east; however, it is expected to turn toward the west or west-northwest soon. The models continue to insist upon a Sicily landfall, though uncertainty remains for Gloria's track afterwards. The GFS and CMC have come into agreement on a slower track to landfall, followed by a slow and erratic motion near or over Sicily. The Euro agrees but is faster to landfall. Therefore, the most likely outcome is dissipation over Sicily through land interaction. The GFS and Euro now agree that Gloria or Gloria's remnant low will return to the Ionian Sea and dissipate while tracking southeast, and the track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Conditions are expected to become more favorable for intensification over the next few days, and the intensity forecast has been raised slightly, following the GFS output. If landfall occurs sooner, Gloria's peak will be lower.
CURRENT CONDITIONS:
Gloria has a well developed and tight low level circulation and sustained convection in the NE quadrant. The LLCC is fully exposed, with a significant blob of convection displaced to the east-northeast in a classic shear pattern. There has been no improvement to the convective structure; therefore, in the absence of new data, the winds and pressure are assessed to be the same as at 18z. This assessment could be conservative. Interests in Sicily, the southern Italian peninsula, and Malta should be prepared for periods of high wind and heavy rain over the forecast period.
INIT 27/0000Z 34.4N 17.9E 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 34.6N, 17.3E 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 35N, 16.5E 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 35.5N, 15.3E 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 36.1N, 15.6E 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 37.2N, 15.5E 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST OF SICILY
72H 30/0000Z 37.3N, 14.9E 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER LAND
96H 31/0000Z 36.6 N, 16.1E 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANT LOW
...GLORIA CONTINUES WITH LITTLE CHANGE...
Current location: 34.4°N, 17.9°E
Maximum sustained winds: 30 kt/35 mph
Minimum central pressure: 1005 mbar
Moving: E 4kt...5 MPH...10 kph
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Since the last forecast, Gloria has continued to drift slowly to the east; however, it is expected to turn toward the west or west-northwest soon. The models continue to insist upon a Sicily landfall, though uncertainty remains for Gloria's track afterwards. The GFS and CMC have come into agreement on a slower track to landfall, followed by a slow and erratic motion near or over Sicily. The Euro agrees but is faster to landfall. Therefore, the most likely outcome is dissipation over Sicily through land interaction. The GFS and Euro now agree that Gloria or Gloria's remnant low will return to the Ionian Sea and dissipate while tracking southeast, and the track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Conditions are expected to become more favorable for intensification over the next few days, and the intensity forecast has been raised slightly, following the GFS output. If landfall occurs sooner, Gloria's peak will be lower.
CURRENT CONDITIONS:
Gloria has a well developed and tight low level circulation and sustained convection in the NE quadrant. The LLCC is fully exposed, with a significant blob of convection displaced to the east-northeast in a classic shear pattern. There has been no improvement to the convective structure; therefore, in the absence of new data, the winds and pressure are assessed to be the same as at 18z. This assessment could be conservative. Interests in Sicily, the southern Italian peninsula, and Malta should be prepared for periods of high wind and heavy rain over the forecast period.
INIT 27/0000Z 34.4N 17.9E 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 34.6N, 17.3E 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 35N, 16.5E 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 35.5N, 15.3E 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 36.1N, 15.6E 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 37.2N, 15.5E 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST OF SICILY
72H 30/0000Z 37.3N, 14.9E 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER LAND
96H 31/0000Z 36.6 N, 16.1E 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANT LOW
IP属地:广东14楼2021-10-27 22:55
14楼2021-10-27 22:55收起回复
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