FOMC会议纪要平衡中显强硬，一些成员好于在决定削减之前需要有耐心，而另一些成员则提到可能很快就会开始削减价值高达850亿美元的每月债券购买规模。有几个成员表示，如果需要更宽松的政策行动，他们愿意将失业率目标下调至6.5%。FOMC成员的表态与市场预期一致，最早将于9月开始削减，维持美元获得广泛支持并有所上涨。未来的劳工数据对9月FOMC会议是否决定削减将起决定性作用。美国10年期国债收益率上涨超过10个基点，至2.9344％。
新兴市场货币兑美元延续跌势。印度卢比触及新的低点65.56，而土耳其里拉暴跌至历史低点1.9868。新兴市场股票损失惨重，其中损失最大的是Phillippine SE IDX（-6.53％）。中国汇丰/ Markit公布的8月制造业指数攀升至50.1，远远超过预期为48.2和7月份的47.7，使得上证综指隔夜上涨。
美元兑日元在东京市场继续上涨，已上涨至98.34；12-26天MACD趋势指标由负转正。然而，新兴亚洲货币的沉重抛售压力很可能会限制日元的下行空间。首批阻力位分别为98.76（一目均衡云底）和98.98（100日移动均线），期权出价在99.00上方建立。
FOMC会议纪要释放后，澳元和纽元大幅下跌。澳元兑美元下跌至0.8932，抛售兴趣在0.9000-25区间内建立。纽元兑美元稳步下滑至0.7811。在加拿大，美元兑加元测试1.0500，带有稳固的上行偏见。
与全球外汇市场上所见到的逼仓相比，尽管欧元的波动性有所加大，但其反应一直比较温和。欧元兑美元先是下跌至1.3335，之后在纽约市场又上涨至1.3396。最后，广泛走强的美元继续施压欧元兑美元在FOMC会议纪要释放后的走软表现。该货币对在亚洲市场于1.3330-50区间内震荡，随后在欧洲市场悲观开盘。如果8月PMI初步结果与乐观的市场预估一致，则其将应该利好欧元。
英镑兑美元在触及近两个月的最高水平1.5718之后也开始滑落。英国央行鹰派成员威尔的鸽派言论（他表示英国央行可能需要更多量化宽松政策）进一步拖累英镑。1.5590-1.5600区间上方的出价支持英镑，而欧元兑英镑仍然获得0.8500-10区间上方之出价的支撑。
今天，重点是瑞士7月贸易收支和进出口月率、法国、德国和欧元区8月制造业和服务业PMI（初步值）、瑞典7月失业率、美国8月17日首次申请失业救济人数（初步值）和8月10日持续申请失业救济金人数、加拿大6月零售销售数据和扣除汽车后的零售销售数据月率、美国6月房屋价格指、美国7月领先指数和堪萨斯城联邦储备银行8月制造业活动指数。
The FOMC minutes were balanced-to-hawkish with some members calling for patience before the decision of tapering, while others mentioned it might be soon time to begin unwinding the USD 85bn worth monthly bond purchases. Several members were willing to lower the unemployment target to 6.5% if easier policy action is needed. USD gained as the broad support from FOMC members were in line with the expectations to start tapering as soon as September. Labor data ahead will be decisive in FOMC decision in September meeting. US 10-year treasury yield advanced more than 10 basis points to 2.9344%.
The emerging market currencies extended losses versus USD. Indian Rupee hit a fresh low at 65.56, while the Turkish Lira collapsed to the historical low at 1.9868. The EM equities recorded heavy losses, with Phillippine’s SE IDX among the most hit (-6.53%). The Shanghai’s Composite has been shortly seen in green overnight amid the HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing index advanced to 50.1 in August, well beyond 48.2 expected & 47.7 in July.
USDJPY was better bid in Tokyo. The pair advanced to 98.34; the MACD 12/26 day trend indicator turned positive. Nevertheless, heavy sell pressure in emerging Asian currencies is likely to limit the downside in JPY. First set of resistances is seen at 98.76 (Ichimoku cloud base) & 98.98 (100-dayMA), option bids are building above 99.00.
Antipodeans took a dive post-FOMC minutes. AUDUSD fell to 0.8932 with sell interest building at 0.9000/25. NZDUSD steadily lost ground to 0.7811. In Canada, USDCAD tested 1.0500, with solid bias on the upside.
Despite higher volatility, Euro reaction has been subdued compared to global squeeze seen across the fx markets globally. EURUSD fell to 1.3335, and then advanced to 1.3396 in New York. Finally, broad-based USD strength weighed on EURUSD post-minutes. The pair consolidated between 1.3330/50 in Asia, and opened downbeat in Europe. Ahead of us, the PMI data should give some support to euro if the August preliminary results meet the optimistic market estimates.
GBPUSD also slipped after hitting a two-month high at 1.5718. Dovish comments from BoE’s hawkish member Weale (who said BoE may need more QE) further weighed on the sterling. Bids at 1.5590/1.5600 gave support to cable, while EURGBP remains supported by bids still solid above 0.8500/10 area.
Today, the focus is on Swiss July Trade Balance, Exports & Imports m/m, French, German and Euro-Zone August (Preliminary) PMI Manufacturing & Services, Swedish July Unemployment Rate, US august 17th Initial Jobless Claims & August 10th Continuing Claims, Canadian June Retail Sales & Retail Sales Ex Auto m/m, US June House Price Index, Us July Leading Index and Kansas City Fed August Manufacturing Activity.
